Offical Partner
22.12.2008 | Christian Cahn von Seelen
Armageddon and Merry Christmas
What really drives us crazy at PQ+ is not the Financial Crisis per se, nor the discussion about consumer vouchers or VAT reductions. No, it is the mass delusion which makes Media and a big part of Politics herd behind those same prophets and their Armageddon prognoses for 2009 (IWF, OECD,...), that for 2008 still forecast never ending global growth and universal prosperity at 200$ per barrel.
Of course, predictions are difficult, even more so for the future (as attributed to Marc Twain, Winston Churchill, Karl Valentin and others). However as the minimum learning 2008 should have made clear, that also the statistically based data warehouses, churned in huge (and expensive) cluster computers can not deliver more than an “educated guess” of the future.
As Nassim Taleb pointed out in his best-selling “The Black Swan” the world economy is not dominated by a sequence of small stochastic events, but rather by the “low probability – high impact events” like 9/11 or – sic! – the global financial crisis. As he demonstrates, nothing is less like our actual world than a Las Vegas Casino; however still at the basis of most forecasting models there is continuous probability models following the Gaussian distribution curve.
At last one of the leading German economists, Klaus Zimmermann of the DIW (German Institute for Economy) has called for an end of the “I have a worse forecast”-competition currently run by the other institutes – only to be shunned in a chorus of their voices, pointing out the indispensability of their “valuable” work.
Of course planning is a necessary exercise for every company, and if only to fix a budget. However how executives then believe that they have some enforceable title for this planning to come true, is an interesting psychological phenomenon. “I planned, therefore it is going to happen” would be the adjusted Descartes here.
Once more 2008 demonstrates that the essence of risk management is to be prepared for what you do not believe is going to happen.
Thus we wish all of our clients, partners and friends some quiet and peaceful holiday, with time for a good book (see above) and a healthy and prosperous 2009!
As concerns PQ+: For 2009 we have broadened our forces and will continue our way with three new equity partners as PQ+ Deutschland GmbH.
Hubert Bachmann, Gunter Fauth and Hubertus von Laer stand for a deepened focus of our interim management and consulting activities in the areas or productivity, quality, and development management.
Our Dutch partner firm PQ+ Netherlands B.V. has seen a good start since its beginnings in early 2008 and has already won some impressive mandates in the energy as well as in the consumer sector.
At the same time we have entered the French market. Our Country Managing Partner, Cécile Cahn von Seelen has launched our activities at the Expoprotection in Paris with the presentation of the latest AviX® 4 release of the well known Industrial Office Suite. In France we will specifically focus on the areas of productivity and ergonomics.
We are looking forward to a continuously good cooperation with all our clients globally for 2009!
P.S. Waiting for Santa gets to long? Or everything already assembled and you need a few more quiet moments for the good book? Here you find a set of beautiful papercrafts which reminded us of Christmas crafting many, many years ago...
Archieved under: PQ+ Internal